AI FORECAST REVIEW

AI Forecast Verification Log

A verification record comparing AI market-direction forecasts logged before economic releases with the price action afterward.

Before each economic indicator release, our AI records a market-direction forecast, which we then check against the price action afterward. Forecasts are logged in a form that cannot be edited after the fact, and both hits and misses all remain in the list below.

Hit rate 54.1%

Reviewed forecasts 37 forecasts

Average MFE 221 pips

DETAILS

Forecast-by-forecast review

“MFE pips” is the maximum favorable move in the 60 minutes after release; “Close pips” is the move at the end of that review window.

Date	Event	Direction	Result	MFE pips	Close pips
2026-10-0810/8	FOMC議事録	Sell	✅ Hit	+44	+25
2026-10-0810/8	ウォラー理事講演	Buy	❌ Miss	+43	-61
2026-10-0810/8	米失業保険申請	Buy	❌ Miss	+4	-59
2026-10-0510/5	米ISM非製造業	Sell	❌ Miss	+34	-86
2026-10-0210/2	米雇用統計	Buy	✅ Hit	+429	+84
2026-10-0110/1	カシュカリ発言	Sell	✅ Hit	+57	+48
2026-10-0110/1	米失業保険申請	Buy	❌ Miss	+83	-115
2026-10-0110/1	ウォラー講演	Sell	✅ Hit	+143	+115
2026-10-0110/1	米製造業PMI	Sell	✅ Hit	+143	+115
2026-09-309/30	米ADP雇用統計	Sell	❌ Miss	+119	-15
2026-09-309/30	米コアPCE・GDP	Sell	✅ Hit	+65	+17
2026-09-249/24	米新規失業保険申請	Buy	✅ Hit	+135	+12
2026-09-179/17	FOMC	Sell	✅ Hit	+1,028	+857
2026-09-179/17	米新規失業保険	Sell	✅ Hit	+219	+88
2026-09-169/16	米小売売上高	Sell	❌ Miss	+60	-88
2026-09-119/11	米CPI	Buy	✅ Hit	+583	+550
2026-09-109/10	米PPI・失業保険	Sell	✅ Hit	+409	+10
2026-09-049/4	米雇用統計	Sell	✅ Hit	+1,057	+567
2026-09-039/3	米新規失業保険	Sell	❌ Miss	+10	-315
2026-09-039/3	米ISM非製造業	Sell	❌ Miss	+142	-282
2026-09-029/2	米ADP雇用	Sell	❌ Miss	+59	-87
2026-09-019/1	米ISM製造業PMI	Sell	✅ Hit	+124	+78
2026-08-278/27	米失業保険申請	Buy	❌ Miss	+10	-214
2026-08-268/26	コアPCE	Sell	✅ Hit	+333	+155
2026-08-208/20	FOMC議事要旨	Sell	❌ Miss	+146	-101
2026-08-208/20	新規失業保険	Buy	✅ Hit	+253	+163
2026-08-148/14	米小売売上高	Sell	❌ Miss	+92	-120
2026-08-138/13	米PPI	Sell	✅ Hit	+142	+125
2026-08-128/12	米CPI	Buy	❌ Miss	+150	-142
2026-08-078/7	米雇用統計	Buy	✅ Hit	+615	+427
2026-08-068/6	米失業保険申請	Buy	❌ Miss	+96	-113
2026-08-038/3	ISM製造業	Sell	❌ Miss	+56	-4
2026-07-307/30	FOMC	Sell	❌ Miss	+35	-603
2026-07-307/30	米GDP・PCE	Sell	✅ Hit	+122	+13
2026-07-237/23	米失業保険申請	Buy	❌ Miss	+24	-110
2026-07-157/15	米PPI	Buy	✅ Hit	+354	+216
2026-07-147/14	米CPI	Buy	✅ Hit	+765	+522

* This is a verification of personal views and AI analysis, not investment advice. Past review results do not guarantee future market moves or profits.